Risk isn’t measured anymore. It’s predicted.
PoD® tells you how likely a UK company is to enter insolvency in the next 12 months, as a simple percentage. Every company has one, including recent incorporations.
PoD® · PROBABILITY OF DISTRESS · launching 21.10.2026
Trusted by 350+ leading risk teams across the uk
What is PoD®
PoD® tells you how likely a UK company is to enter insolvency in the next 12 months, as a simple percentage.
12
months ahead, not a year behind
5.7m+
every UK & Irish company scored, including recent incorporations
5
risk bands, from minimal to critical
How it works
One probability. Derived from multiple signals.
PoD® looks well beyond just accounts. When something changes, the score changes.
More than the accounts
CCJs, charges, petitions, filing behaviour, directors and group links.
Always up to date
It updates as events happen, not once a year.
Real odds
A true probability, so you can weigh it against your exposure.
Contributing factors
Every score shows its working.
See what pushed the score up and what pulled it down. Easy to explain to your credit committee.
Contributing factors
IllustrativeBase insolvency rate2.4%
Filing – Financials+2.1%
CCJs+1.4%
Director profile+0.8%
Balance sheet−0.9%
Group structure−0.4%
Other factors+0.3%
12-month PoD®3.3%
■ Increases risk
Late accounts, CCJs, risky director links.
■ Reduces risk
A strong balance sheet, a clean audit.
70%
of beta users trusted PoD® as an indicator of distress within weeks of first use.
PoD® and H-Score®
Use our two primary scores together.
H-Score® shows financial health today, PoD® shows the chance of distress ahead.
H-Score®
How financially healthy is this company?
Built from the annual financial accounts.
Moves when new accounts are filed.
Returns a score index from 0 to 100.
PoD®
How likely is distress in the next 12 months?
Built from accounts + live filing and group data.
Updates continuously, as events happen.
Returns a probability, as a percentage.
91%
of beta users rated PoD® very useful or higher
case study
Does a probability change the decision?
Simon Howell, Senior Credit Manager at Tarmac, on running PoD® alongside the H-Score® and the calls it has changed.
Monitor with PoD®
Know the day the odds change.
Build your portfolio, choose the triggers, and let PoD® watch it. You hear about a counterparty the day risk moves, not when the invoice goes unpaid.
- PoD® rises, falls or enters Critical
- A company moves between risk levels
- Credit limit changes
- Contract limit changes
- A threshold you set yourself is crossed
IN-PLATFORM · EMAIL · API
Built for the people who make the call.
Credit managers & credit controllers
Know who to trust before you extend credit. Then focus your time on the accounts most likely to fail.
Procurement & third-party risk managers
Spot a failing supplier before it hits delivery. Check suppliers before you sign, and get alerts on the ones you rely on.
Risk analysts, underwriters & investigators
Get to the bottom of a company of concern. The score, the reasons and the links, all on one page.
Risk modelling & data teams
Plug a real probability into your own models. Available through the API, alongside your existing scores.
Risk isn’t measured anymore. It’s predicted.
Book a demo and we’ll run a probability of distress on any UK company you choose. You’ll see the PoD®, the contributing factors, the methodology, and how it compares to what you’re using today.
What you’ll unlock:
- Run a live PoD® on any UK or Irish company
- See the PoD® methodology and how it’s calculated
- Trace a score back to the factors that moved it
- Set up Monitor alerts on the companies that matter to you
- Compare PoD® directly against the score you use today
FAQs
The probability that a UK company will enter insolvency in the next 12 months, shown as a percentage. Every UK company has one, including new businesses.
Administration, receivership, a CVA, a Creditors’ Voluntary Liquidation or compulsory liquidation.
The H-Score® measures financial health from a company’s accounts. PoD® predicts distress using the accounts plus live court, filing and group data. Use them side by side.
Whenever new information comes in, such as a CCJ or a late filing. You don’t have to wait for the next accounts.
Yes. Every profile shows the factors that pushed the score up or down.
It’s a machine-learning model trained on Company Watch’s full UK dataset and tested with 64 credit and risk professionals.
On company profiles, in Portfolio Overview, in Monitor alerts and through the API.
From 21 October 2026.