PoD®
Probability of distress. Measured, not guessed.
Predict what’s coming. Not just what’s happened.
Traditional scoring only shows how a company looks today. PoD® (Probability of Distress®) tells you how likely that company is to fail within the next one to three years.
It’s not a hunch. It’s a percentage. Backed by data and built for precision.
Know the likelihood of failure
PoD® gives you a clear percentage risk of distress. It covers everything from business failure to financial reconstruction.
No vague red flags, no gut-feel scoring. Just a clean, quantified forecast of what might come next.
Built on real distress events
Probability of Distress® is trained on a global database of actual corporate failures. It combines a company’s H-Score®, historical distress patterns, and economic indicators like GDP growth to produce a meaningful, evidence-based probability.
The result? A smarter signal than any generic risk label.
Strengthen forecasting and provisioning
Whether you’re setting limits, provisioning for bad debt, or reviewing exposure. PoD® gives you a measurable way to plan for future risk.
It fits cleanly into your credit models, your committee packs, and your real-world decisions.
Find out more
See how Probability of Distress® supports proactive risk strategies. And helps you shift from reactive to predictive.
“We’ve worked with Company Watch for more than 10 years now. I’m impressed with how Company Watch is always ahead of the curve and always exploring innovative new ways to add value to the risk analysis process.”
Ian Selby
Chief Underwriting Officer
“One-stop shop for our information needs.”
Jon Rigby
Risk Analyst
“Easy to use service.”
Andrew Taylor
Transaction Risk Manager
“Provides good, early data and a different perspective to underpin our decisioning. Having moved from a long-standing data provider, we have found Company Watch to be a very innovative product that will be a game changer for our credit management. A professional product for professionals!”
Simon Howell
Senior Credit Manager
“Very reliable and accurate scoring module.”
Ray Draper
Head of Risk & Fraud Management
“A breath of fresh air in the tech space.”
Jane Hull
Underwriting Director
“I don’t believe there is anything else quite like Company Watch on the market.”
Chris Ardern
Risk Underwriting Manager
PoD® is a data-driven risk score that gives the percentage likelihood a company will enter financial distress, fail, or require reconstruction within 1–3 years.
While credit scores reflect current financial health, PoD® looks ahead. It quantifies future risk based on real-world patterns and economic context.
PoD® combines a company’s H-Score®, historical distress rates by score, macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth, and aggregate failure rates across the population.
Thousands of actual corporate distress events ground PoD®, and we continuously refine it. Financial institutions, insurers, and risk teams trust it to support forecasting and provisioning.
Yes. PoD® integrates seamlessly into credit models, risk frameworks, and provisioning strategies. It adds clarity and forward-looking insight.
Credit professionals, risk managers, underwriters, and anyone responsible for financial exposure or bad debt forecasting. Businesses use it as a key input for proactive risk management.
Explore our entire set of business credit scores and predictive solutions.
Ready to level up your risk strategy?
See how our solutions can transform the way you manage financial risk. Take the first step toward a more resilient, data-driven future.
Here’s what you’ll unlock:
- Analyse your full risk exposure
- Model and stress-test real-world scenarios
- Get daily alerts on portfolio changes
- Explore award-winning tools and features
- Make faster, smarter decisions backed by data
